North Saanich Housing Targets: What Story Do The Numbers Actually Tell
North Saanich has found itself under increasing pressure from the Province of British Columbia to accelerate housing construction. Recent news reports have focused on the municipality’s failure to meet provincial housing targets, with advisers recommending changes to increase housing supply and speed up development approvals.
The implication is clear: North Saanich is not building enough homes. But before accepting that conclusion, it is worth taking a closer look at the numbers.
According to the 2021 Census conducted by Statistics Canada, North Saanich’s population grew from 11,249 residents in 2016 to 12,235 residents in 2021. That’s an increase of 986 people, or 8.8 per cent over five years. During the same period, the number of occupied private dwellings increased from 4,626 to 5,010. In other words, North Saanich added 384 occupied homes, representing growth of 8.3 per cent.
The first thing that stands out is how closely those figures track one another. Population growth and housing growth moved almost in lockstep. The difference between them was less than half a percentage point. That does not suggest a municipality that has refused to build housing. On the contrary, it suggests that housing supply expanded alongside population growth over the most recent census period.
This is where the conversation becomes more interesting.
The Province has assigned North Saanich a housing target of 419 new homes by 2029, equivalent to roughly 84 homes per year. By comparison, census data indicates that the municipality added approximately 77 occupied dwellings annually between 2016 and 2021. The difference is not enormous. The provincial target is about nine per cent higher than North Saanich’s recent historical rate of housing growth.
Yet public discussion often creates the impression that North Saanich faces a dramatic housing deficit or has fundamentally resisted growth. The census data paints a more nuanced picture. The community grew. Housing grew. New residents were accommodated. The numbers do not support a narrative of zero growth or complete stagnation.
None of this means additional housing is unnecessary.
Population growth creates demand. Housing affordability remains a challenge across much of British Columbia. Younger residents and families often struggle to find suitable housing options within the communities where they grew up. These are real concerns. But they are only part of the story. What is largely missing from the current debate is a discussion about the purpose of growth and the character of the community that growth is intended to serve. North Saanich is not simply a housing market. It is a rural municipality with agricultural lands, environmentally sensitive areas, coastal ecosystems and a community identity that residents have repeatedly said they value.
The recently adopted Official Community Plan (OCP) reflects years of public consultation about how to balance these priorities. It acknowledges that growth will occur while emphasising stewardship, environmental protection, agricultural preservation and careful if not slow, planning. The question, therefore, is not whether North Saanich should grow. The data shows that it already has.
The more important question is how growth should occur and whether success should be measured solely by the number of housing units constructed. Housing targets provide one metric. Population growth provides another. Neither, by itself, tells us what kind of community North Saanich is or will become. That is ultimately a civic choice, not a statistical one. A choice already made in the detailed OCP.
The numbers suggest that North Saanich has been growing steadily and that housing construction has broadly kept pace with population growth. They also suggest that the gap between historical housing delivery and provincial expectations may be smaller than public debate sometimes implies. As discussions about housing continue, residents would be well served by asking not only how many homes should be built, but what larger vision those homes are intended to support.
Because before we build the future, we should understand the numbers and what they are, and are not, telling us.
Sources:
Statistics Canada, Census Profile, North Saanich, British Columbia. Population increased from 11,249 (2016) to 12,235 (2021); occupied private dwellings increased from 4,626 to 5,010.
Statistics Canada, 2016 and 2021 Census Profiles for North Saanich, British Columbia.
Province of British Columbia Housing Targets Program (North Saanich target: 419 net new homes by 2029; Year 1 target: 60 homes)
